The Energy Security Target Monitor is responsible for assessing and monitoring whether NSW will have sufficient firm capacity (generation, firming, storage and transmission capacity) to meet the Energy Security Target under different scenarios.
The Energy Security Target is the amount of reliable electricity needed to meet customer demand during a summer heat wave, plus a buffer. The Energy Security Target is designed to provide market certainty as it ensures there will be reliable supplies of electricity available to meet demands over the medium term.
The current Energy Security Target Monitor is the Secretary of the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. Prior to 2025, it was the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
Energy Security Target Monitor Reports
The Energy Security Target Monitor’s assessment of whether there is enough firm capacity in the NSW power system to meet the Energy Security Target is provided in the Energy Security Target Monitor Report.
Read the latest report:
The 2025 Energy Security Target Monitor Report shows NSW’s energy security outlook has improved compared to previous years. This is largely driven by the commissioning of new renewable energy generation and storage projects.
The 2025 Energy Security Target Monitor Report shows that NSW has sufficient firm capacity until a forecast shortfall emerges in 2027-28. After this shortfall, sufficient firm capacity is maintained until another shortfall emerges in 2033-34 with the expected closure of the Bayswater and Vales Point power stations.
While the 2025 Energy Security Target Monitor Report confirms that new energy infrastructure already in development under NSW and Australian government initiatives can address these shortfalls if delivered on time, there are challenges that make this uncertain. The Energy Security Target Monitor Report identifies emerging challenges such as renewable energy lulls, shifts in power station operating patterns, and the growing impact of data centres on future electricity demand. The report has considered a number of these in modelled scenarios.
NSW Government’s response
To address the 2027-28 shortfall, in July 2025 the Minister for Energy directed the Consumer Trustee, AusEnergy Services Limited (ASL), to tender for new firm capacity that can be online by the summer of 2027-28. The tender will prioritise projects that can supply the Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong areas. These areas have large populations, high electricity use and transmission network limits that make it hard to bring in power from outside the region.
Other initiatives led by NSW Government to ensure energy security include:
- Entering into an agreement with Origin Energy in 2022 to keep Eraring power station operating until August 2027. Under the agreement, the government will provide financial underwriting, and Origin will share any profits. Learn more about the agreement.
- Legislating via the Energy Amendment (Long Duration Storage and Investment) Act 2024 an additional minimum objective of 12 GWh of long duration storage by 31 December 2033 (2034 target) to meet the reliability standard in NSW.
- Awarding long duration storage agreements to secure 40% of the 2030 target, and 66% of the 2034 target, outlined in the NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap.
- Offering Peak Demand Reduction Scheme incentives to homes and small businesses to connect their solar batteries to a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). A Virtual Power Plant lets consumers to sell excess electricity back to the grid on an ongoing basis. Consumers can use this incentive together with the Australian Government’s Cheaper Home Batteries Program discount.
- Establishing the Energy Security Corporation to make investments in storage projects, address gaps in the current market, and improve the reliability of our electricity network.
- Delivering the Waratah Super Battery as a network standby battery. This super battery will ensure a reliable supply of energy across the state, especially during times when it is needed the most, like in the event of power surges during a storm or bushfire.
- Providing grants to Transgrid and the AEMO for additional grid connection engineering resources.
Previous Energy Security Target Monitor Reports can be found below:
Firming Tenders for Long-Term Energy Service Agreements (LTESAs)
In July 2025, the Minister for Energy directed ASL to conduct a competitive tender for new projects that can supply around 500MW of firm capacity by 2027-28, prioritising projects located in the Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong sub-region.
The outcomes from this tender will help meet the forecast shortfall in firm capacity for the summer of 2027-28 that was identified in the 2024 Energy Security Target Monitor Report. The shortfall is due to the planned closure of Eraring power station in 2027 before new generation and transmission projects are up and running.
Successful projects will join those supported in the state’s first firming tender in 2023:
- Enel X’s large scale virtual power plant
- AGL’s Liddell battery
- Akaysha Energy’s Orana battery
- Iberdrola’s Smithfield battery.
For more information about tender outcomes, please see ASL tenders.